Friday, August 30, 2013

College Football week 1 part 3

Well with the temperature as hot as Kate Upton here in the Des Moinese metro area, I will be camped out watching football tonight. I am 1-0 so far in my picks with UNC & USC keeping the total WAY under.

Game #5
I am going with a blast from the past, at least if you are an Iowa State Cyclone fan. Dan McCarney will lead North Texas against Idaho. Right now NT is -16.5, I have to admit I know nothing about these teams but North Texas had a few good games last year. I think coach Mac lights up Idaho in this one 37-10.

Game #6
LSU and TCU square in at Jerry world in Dallas. While most of the world hates the Dallas Cowboys they can at least give us a great venue for a sold out football game. TCU returns a TON of defensive players and playmakers, while Devonte Fields will not be playing, I still expect the TCU defense to be pretty stout. LSU traditionally has had a problem with offense, we will see if that trend continues. I like that TCU is +4.5 as I think they can win the game outright. I feel good taking TCU plus the points.

For a review, I am 1-0 with the under with South Carolina, I have Northern Illinois +3, UMASS +44, Okie St -12, North Texas -16.5 and TCU +4.5

Thursday, August 29, 2013

NCAA College Football week 1 part 2

Here are some additional picks for week 1 of college football. I am typing this as I watch South Carolina against North Carolina, from what I have seen this is pretty entertaining! DId I mention I love college footbal!?!?!?!?!!

Game #3
Wisconsin -44 hosts UMASS. UMASS will never be considered a football powerhouse but I think Wisconsin will be down some this year after losing Bielema. Look for the final to be 45-10 in this one. UMASS covers this spread.

Game #4
Oklahoma State is -12 at a neutral site game against Mississippi State. Okie St is fast, real fast. They also have two QB's that can win Big 12 football games. This is a great way to start off the college football season. I think Okie St wins this one easily. The Cowboy defense takes the steps most people think they can. Okie St 37 Miss St 17.

So far I have NIU +3, UNC vs. USC under 57, UMASS +44 and Okie St -12.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

College Football Week 1 (Hell yeah!)

Well praise the Lord we are about ready to kickoff the 2013 college football season. I do not know about you but I have been waiting for what feels like an eternity!

A refresher on what I am doing, I take lines from vegasinsider.com (LVH) and pick against the spread or the game totals. I finished right around 50/50 last year so I need to improve on that. I will spit out a couple of games tonight, a couple tomorrow and one on Thursday or Friday. I love a lot of the games this opening week, however I do not like a lot of the lines!

My first game of the season, I will stick in my home state where the University of Iowa hosts BCS buster Northern Illinois. NIU returns a lot on offense but not much on defense. Iowa's QB will be taking his first career snaps in the middle of the hot afternoon on the even hotter turf at Kinnick Stadium. Last years game went down to the wire in Chicago as Iowa pulled out a 1 point win. NIU is looking for some payback. I wish I would have posted this earlier with NIU +6, it is now NIU +3. Of course that does not matter as I think NIU wins this game outright extends Iowa's losing streak to 7 games. NIU 27 Iowa 21. I carn't wait to eat some Smokey D's in Downtown Des Moines based on this outcome, thanks Greg for giving me an easy free lunch!

Game 2
The first good matchup of the season has North Carolina on the road at South Carolina. I feel like Connor Shaw has been the QB at SC for the last decade. Jadeveon Clowney, what do you all think? Is this his first game on his quest to win the Heisman? He many not rack up 20 tackles in this game but I think UNC tries to scheme around him. I do not think there are a lot of points scored in this game, South Carolina wins this one 27-10 or 27-17, take the under. The total is at 57.

So NIU wins outright over Iowa and UNC at South Carolina goes under 57.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

2013 Iowa State Season Preview

Here we go again! We are getting ever closer to the 2013 football season and like all of you I am pumped! There are several interesting items regarding this season. We will bid farewell to the BCS system, we have teams in their new leagues and teams playing in their conferences for the last time. Will the SEC win their 300th title in a row? Only one way to find out, let’s get the season started.

I feel pretty clueless right now regarding the Iowa State Cyclones for 2013. There are some exciting young guys on the team but the key word is young! The depth chart released in July showed about 13 freshmen on the 2 deeps, including one true freshman in Alton Meeks at LB. There are a lot of new faces on this year’s squad. If the 2014 Cyclone squad was playing the 2013 season, I’d say ISU would end up 8-4 or 9-3. The Big 12 is going to take a step back this year with all the QB departures over the past few years. You just don’t replace that talent over night.

What gives me some confidence for Iowa State in 2013? Wally Burnham, this guy has done more with less at Iowa State for years. I think there is some talent on the defensive line right now, just unproven. Coach Shane Burnham said to Chris Williams of Cyclonefanatic.com “They are going to get better because they are playing earlier than anybody we’ve had but let me tell you, we’ve played around here and won games with a lot less talent inside. Now again, it’s just potential and it isn’t production yet.”
Coach Rhoads said this is the most talent he’s had on that side of the line, they just need the experience. Speed is something else I am confident in. In the non conference games last year Iowa State showed they were much faster than all three of their opponents and they were not blown away by Big 12 opponents, except for maybe Texas and Oklahoma St.

What scares me about Iowa St in 2013? Youth! So many young guys all over the field. They are going to be skilled and fast but they are going to over pursue and make other rookie mistakes, those need to be limited. Is Sam Richardson the guy at QB? He played outstanding against KU (who didn’t), not so great against WVU (not a good day for anyone on both teams) and was not good against Tulsa in the Bowl game where he was allegedly sick. Iowa State plays a top 10 tough schedule again this year. Will the young guys hold up through the grind? Let’s find out!

August 31, 2013
Northern Iowa – Northern Iowa returns some skill position talent from a below average team a year ago. This is a game where Northern Iowa usually plays over their head and I expect the same in this game. The score ends up more close then it should but ISU wins in the end. Your score, Iowa State 31 Northern Iowa 17.

September 14, 2013
Iowa – Iowa visits Ames for the first time since their 3 OT loss in 2011. While I don’t expect as much offense as 2011, I do expect more than we saw in the 9-6 game in Iowa City in 2012. Iowa comes into the game with a 1-1 record after a 10 pt opening week loss at home and then a 30 point win over Missouri State. Iowa’s QB will be starting his 3rd game while Sam Richardson will be playing in only his 5th game. The Iowa offensive line should be pretty good in 2013 and the ISU d line could struggle early on this season. I’d expect Iowa to try and grind the clock on the ground while ISU will attempt to tire out the Iowa defense with the jet tempo offense. Numerous times in 2012 ISU WR’s beat the Iowa defenders down the field but were overthrown by Steel Jantz. I’d expect ISU to take some more deep shots against this defense but will connect on a couple of those. I also think ISU will not have red zone turnovers this year which will help make this game a bit easier to watch from an Iowa State standpoint. This game does not get decided until the 4th quarter when Iowa’s QB throw s a pick with about 6-7 minutes to go in the game. Iowa State kicks a field goal with a couple of minutes to go. Iowa State wins this one 31-19. (4 FG’s for Iowa).

Thursday September 26th
@Tulsa
Iowa State is 2-0 coming off their second bye and meeting Tulsa for the third time in 13 months. This will be the rubber match, Tulsa beat Iowa State in the Liberty bowl by mauling both the offensive and defensive lines. Iowa State beat Tulsa in the season opener in 2012 in kind of a deceiving 2 touchdown win. Tulsa will be facing their second Big 12 team of the season after coming off a loss at Oklahoma. Cody Green will be a load to take down, I feel Tulsa will try to run on ISU all game. Tulsa has lost some guys up front, we will see if their replacements are ready to fill in. Two weeks in a row against Big 12 opponents will not help Tulsa’s cause. A healthy Sam Richardson throws much better in this appearance then he did in the bowl game. We hear Richardson to Bundrage MANY times in the game. Bundrage ends up with 11 catches for 185 and two scores and ISU pulls out a victory by the score of 38-31. Iowa State is 3-0 in the non conference for the third year in a row.

Thursday October 3rd
Texas
Iowa State plays back to back Thursday night game, this one is at home. Texas is coming off a hard fought victory against Kansas St the previous Saturday. This means a short week on the road for the Longhorns. In most circumstances I would pick Iowa State to win this game. Texas still has too many athletes and Iowa State under coach Rhoads does not seem to fare well in these types of situations. There is a possibility this game could get ugly, similar to the game against Texas in 2011. I think Iowa State keeps it close but falls in this one 38-27. Iowa State falls to 3-1 after suffering their first loss of the season.

October 12th
@Texas Tech
The last time a Paul Rhoads team went to Lubbock Iowa State took the Red Raiders to the woodshed. Tech will be coming in with new coach Kliff Kingsbury who was an outstanding passer when he played in Lubbock. Tech is coming off of a surprise loss on the road at KU and fans are questioning the Kingsbury hire. Could the season be lost with a second loss in a row to a traditional bottom rung Big 12 team? Iowa State runs for 275 and passes for 250 more in this good old fashioned shootout. The Tech offense will not go quietly. Quenton Bundrage has another huge game for Iowa State catching 13 passes for 150 yards and two more scores. Iowa State 45 Texas Tech 38. Iowa State goes to 4-1 while Texas Tech falls to 3-3.

October 19th
@Baylor
I don’t like this game for ISU. The Baylor offensive line is a force to be reckoned with. Baylor is really rolling with their offensive line. Seastrunk will pile up some good numbers in this game on his way to New York as a Heisman finalist. Baylor runs over the tired Iowa State defense putting up almost 300 yards on the ground and another 225 through the air. Iowa State manages to put a few points but not nearly enough. Baylor wins this one going away. Baylor 42 Iowa State 24.

October 26th
Oklahoma St.
The Cowboys come to town and are undefeated so far in conference. Their defense is the surprise of the league so far, shutting down everyone they have played against to date. Okie St is 6-0 and sits at #7 in the BCS standings. ISU comes out jazzed up and puts up 13 quick points and fail to convert points on an interception. This is the start of the downfall for ISU. Iowa State only manages to get into the red zone one more time in the game, while the Cyclones convert this opportunity into a touchdown, it is not enough. Oklahoma St. wins this game. The defense puts the clamps down and the Cowboy offense keeps the Cyclone defense off balance all game long. The final in this one is Okie St 38 Iowa State 20. Iowa State drops to 4-3 overall and 1-3 in the conference.

November 2
@Kansas St.
Kansas St is finishing up 3 home games in a row and want their home stand to end on a positive note before heading to Lubbock. This game has been so close the last several years, ISU just has not been able to pull the game out in the end. Iowa State was a QB away from winning last year. Sam Richardson is a much better option then Barnett or Jantz which gives Iowa State a real good chance in this one. No matter what I am picking Iowa State to win this as they are ‘due’! This is a tight game in the fourth quarter, Bundrage has made a couple of great catches to keep drives alive. James White and Aaron Wimberly are moving the chains on the ground. On a 3rd and 4 from the K-State 22 yard line, Sam Richardson hits Ernst Brun at the 15 yard line. Brun breaks a couple of tackles and drags a defender into the endzone to seal the game for the Cyclones. The final is Iowa State 24 Kansas State 21. At 5-3, Iowa State is one game away from bowl eligibility.

November 9th
TCU visits Ames for the first time since the McCarney era for homecoming. TCU has an outstanding defense with eventual 2nd team All-American Devonte Fields leading the way. This is a tight game and a fun one to watch. There are great plays made by both defenses. Heading into the 4th quarter the score is tied at 13 as both teams are starting to wear down. Shontrelle Johnson misses a block and allows Fields to sack Richardson. TCU scoops up the fumble and returns it to the Iowa State 19. After converting a 4th and 1 from the 10, TCU scores the go ahead TD with just under 2 minutes to. Sam Richardson leads Iowa State down the field before throwing an interception to seal ISU’s fate. Iowa State drops to 5-4 after losing 23-16.

November 16th
@Oklahoma
Do I need to say anything about this game? Things normally do not go well when Iowa State heads to Norman. In 2011, Iowa State could have won that game, I feel, with average QB play. I feel OU is going to be down some this year but not enough to matter in this game. Blake Bell throws for 250 and rushes for another 35 while OU gets a total of 215 on the ground. OU wins this one 31-13, the game is not as close as the score would indicate.

November 23rd
Kansas
Kansas is much improved coming into this game. Some of the JUCO gambles that Charlie Weis made have paid off. Kansas thinks this is a game they could win and the first repeat opponent Richardson will have seen in conference play. KU needs to win this game and also against their instate rival KSU. Sam Richardson follows up his KU performance with another great one. Iowa State has 2 backs over 100 yards and another 2 over 35. KU puts up some points but not enough. The final score, Iowa State 38 KU 27. Iowa State is bowl eligible for the fourth time in 5 years under Rhoads. Iowa State is 6-5 now with one game to go.

November 30th
@West Virginia
West Virginia comes off a bye week and needs to win this game for bowl eligibility. The transition into the Big 12 has not gone as well as the Morgantown faithful would have liked. Last year Tavon Austin sealed the game against ISU on a play that would not have happened if Jake Knott had been playing. ISU is coming off a big win at home against KU and has some momentum on their side. The WVU offense just does not click in this game and this has been a theme throughout the season. Sam Richardson finishes the regular season strong completing almost 70% of his passes for 295 yards to go along with 200 total rushing yards for the team. ISU ends a disappointing season for WVU with a score of 27-17. WVU finishes 5-7 while Iowa State finishes 7-5. Time to go bowling!

After going 7-5 and 4-5 in conference play, Iowa State will be heading to Houston to face the Indiana Hoosiers from the Big 10 in Meineke Car Care Bowl. Indiana is hopped up to play in a bowl game which they have not done since 2007. Talented QB Tre Roberson for Indiana will be trying to sling the ball all over the place. Although the teams are not ‘sexy’ the game turns out to be one of the better ones of the bowl season. The team’s trade offensive and defensive blows, Iowa State forces a fumble in the 4th quarter with 3 and a half minutes to go. The Cyclones are able pound the ball on the ground with an offensive line that punishes the Indiana defense. With 23 seconds to go in the game, Iowa State lines up for a 39 yard field goal from Senior kicker Edwin Arceo. The kick is up and it is good! Indiana does nothing with their possession and Iowa State ends up at 8-5 on the year and Paul Rhoads gets his bowl record to 2-2. The final score is Iowa State 27 Indiana 24.

2014 has the chance to be a special season in Ames. By special I think 8-9 wins are a possibility. Iowa State will be returning an enormous amount of players and will still be considered young. Big 12 title in 2015? We will see…